大马股市基本面大师冷眼，在周一特意拨冗拜访《南洋商报》。在担任本报的总编辑之前，冷眼曾是经济组主任，即使退休多年仍心系经济组，并执意要在新书上逐一签名，赠送给每一位经济组记者。除了谈及出书时的趣事，期间，冷眼也不忘与经济组记者交流，更坦言“一日南洋人，终生南洋人”，并且赞扬记者努力奋发的工作精神。 后排左起为经济组主编夏国文及助理主编伍咏敏。右起为经济记者刘颖欣、吕抒玲及叶慈喜。
冷眼认为，股票赚钱必须靠两部引擎。第一部引擎是公司的盈利增加，而第二部引擎是整体股市上升带动股价走高。
他把以上说法，套入股市3种股票类型（亏本股、盈利保持股、增长股）。
冷眼说：“如果该公司没赚钱，这类亏本股好比没有引擎的滑翔机；如果公司有盈利，基础好，可是盈利没有增长，不能够创造价值，只能靠股市上升推动股价的公司，属于只拥有一部引擎的飞机。”
“而第3种公司是盈利有所增长，股市又同时走高，就等同于双引擎的喷射机，这种股肯定赚钱。”
“很不幸的是，马银行（MAYBANK，1155，主板金融股）、森那美（SIME，4197，主板贸服股）和IOI集团（IOICORP，1961，主板种植股），这类股票是只有一部引擎的飞机，不值得买进。”
“反观嘉登（GADANG，9261，主板建筑股），纵然今年股市不明朗，可是业绩表现很好，只靠一部引擎就使股价上扬，如果现在是牛市，一定不得了。
“所以投资者不能只衡量公司的规模，因为规模大或小不会直接影响股价，反而是找出公司的‘引擎’数量。”
但是他补充，以上单引擎公司，不是不能买入，而是必须等到股价便宜，本益比低于10倍，在8倍左右才可买入。
“如果成长股的本益比在高位，仍可考虑买入，因为公司未来高盈利会将本益比拉低。”
避开产业油气银行股
采用由上而下的投资策略，观察经济状况，接着选择适合投资行业，再从中选出“心水股”。然而，不管是选股还是选行业，都是很深的学问，冷眼用一句谚语道出其中重要性——“巧妇难为无米之炊”。
“形容在无米的厨房，就算是拥有十八般厨艺的好媳妇，也煮不出一道像样的菜色。”
他说，如果该行业正走下坡或没有复苏迹象，还是避而远之为好。当记者询及目前经济状况，最应该避开哪个领域？冷眼直接点出，是房地产行业、油气业和银行业。
“避开房地产行业的原因是，多数人的收入跟不上产业价值的上涨，在没有家人的支助下，年轻人多数买不起房子，可是房子却一再增加，将来可能出现供需失衡的情况。”
至于油气行业，他认为该行业在未来可能过时或被取代，短期来看也不会回弹，全世界开始出现迹象如：汽车用电力或生物燃油驱动、太阳能发电和原油价低弱成新常态，都是他回避油气行业的原因。
此外，冷眼补充：“经济增长缓慢，原油价格低迷，油气公司的盈利受到影响，但是借贷却不会因此减少，所以财务状况不健全的公司，已开始出现坏账问题，并拖累银行业。
“这个坏账问题现在只是一个开端，我建议短期内不要碰银行股，因为股价还未到底。”
另一方面，他提到油棕股，前途还是很好，只是短期内会有很多因素困扰油棕价格。
他说：“棕油领域短期内面对劳工不足和成本上升的问题。但长期来说，前景还是很好，因为棕油很难被取代、食用油的地位与其他用途逐年增加、油棕树寿命长、产量稳定和较少虫害问题。”
修正2投资观点：
1.现金流比债务重要：
以往冷眼很关注债务问题，会避开欠债累累的公司。不过，现在不同了，反而以现金流为投资标准之一。
“现金流才是决定一家公司是否面对倒闭风险的关键，而不是债务。”
而他投资在亚洲航空（AIRASIA，5099，主板贸服股），就是最佳的证明。
亚航截至今年6月30日总债务为107亿令吉，换做是以前的他，肯定不会碰这只股。
他说，虽然亚航债务庞大，但卖机票收现金，加上业务有增长，这意味着收到的钱足以还债。由此可见，债务高不代表公司不好，反而现金流才是关键。
2.资产净值非关键指标：
一家公司的净有形资产价值，曾经是冷眼的投资标准之一，但现在不再是关键指标，因为他发现这和股价没有关联。
“导致股价上升的是公司盈利，而非净有形资产。”
以雀巢（NESTLE，4707，主板消费产品股）为例，根据计算，该股截至今年9月30日每股净有形资产价值介于2.91令吉，但上周三（26日）的闭市价却达78.40令吉，这直接反映出股价和净有形资产价值没有直接关系。
他指出，现在有很多净有形资产价值处于高水平的公司，股价却很低。
“这是因为即使净有形资产价值很高，但公司也不能够分给投资者，所以对于股价上升没有帮助。”
他补充，他注重盈利和股息，因这才是促进投资价值的关键。
针对在网上流传冷眼之前发布的多篇分享集文章，他呼吁，他已经修正投资观点，希望读者留意他投资观点的转变。
冷眼心水股
TUNE保障（TUNEPRO，5230，主板金融股）
·TUNE保障有良好的商业模式，相信该股会跟着亚洲航空（AIRASIA，5099，主板贸服股）一起增长。目前，Tune保险提供网上旅游保障产品给姐妹公司亚洲航空（AIRASIA，5099，主板贸服股），并与宿务太平洋航空（Cebu Pacific）和阿拉伯航空集团（Air Arabia Group）合作，业务版图扩展至超过30个国家，包括中东、北非和欧盟国家。
马面粉（MFLOUR，3662，主板消费产品股）
·在大马、印尼和越南有业务的马面粉，很有增长潜能，长期而言，是一家很好的企业。该公司过去两年表现欠佳，主要是因为印尼业务刚开始投入生产而蒙亏。不过，目前有迹象显示，该公司今年会达到收支平衡，而且印尼拥有庞大人口，未来发展潜能大。更重要的是，政府的政策趋向对马面粉有利。今年，政府取消补贴25公斤装面粉之后，接下来预计会慢慢取消所有面粉补贴。届时，面粉厂将跟随小麦价格起落，维持一定的盈利赚幅，让盈利稳健上升。同时，马面粉厂向霹雳州农业发展机构（SADC）租用2块约664.96英亩土地，以设立综合家禽养殖场，将会有所增长。此外，该公司在巴西古当（Pasir Gudang）的面粉厂，未来将会带来贡献。
股海
Showing posts with label financial. Show all posts
Showing posts with label financial. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 1, 2016
Monday, October 24, 2016
GET OUT FROM RAT RACE
Have you everthough think and rethink what you learn during college time or high school accounting classes?? If you still remember, teacher always tought their student.... what??
Liability and Asset?
I believe until today, you still carry the concept of Car & House is your asset.
But is this true?? When you borrow tone of money from bank and buy your so call ASSET "Car and House".
Do you think this will be price appreciate on the long run?? But bro, I have to tell you a fact.... your car is depreciate over the long run and that not your asset... REASON is your car can only take money out from your POCKET, why I also said your House is also a Liability??
If you carry your house and stay for long run... have your house made you some money?? or generate income for you?? Yes, maybe your property and home is appreciate over the long run... but he never bring you to financial free.. its more like a burden to your life and slowing down the speed you getting rich!!
You made installment for your home as long as 30 years or more... Let say the interest rate is just PROPERTY you acquire is RM400, 000 and interest rate is 4.4%
Over 30 years, you have to pay RM480,000 for your preperty' Interest and your total spend is RM880,000 ..... just imaging how you going to spend your life and etc.
If you are not buying a LIABILITY HOUSE, Car and put your money into an Investment Portforlio... Anual Return just 4% (Compounding Interest) your money will be RM1, 297 359.00
See the difference??
So RETHINK!!! What you learn in school is RIGHT or drive you to another RAT RACE Generation??
Liability and Asset?
I believe until today, you still carry the concept of Car & House is your asset.
But is this true?? When you borrow tone of money from bank and buy your so call ASSET "Car and House".
Do you think this will be price appreciate on the long run?? But bro, I have to tell you a fact.... your car is depreciate over the long run and that not your asset... REASON is your car can only take money out from your POCKET, why I also said your House is also a Liability??
If you carry your house and stay for long run... have your house made you some money?? or generate income for you?? Yes, maybe your property and home is appreciate over the long run... but he never bring you to financial free.. its more like a burden to your life and slowing down the speed you getting rich!!
You made installment for your home as long as 30 years or more... Let say the interest rate is just PROPERTY you acquire is RM400, 000 and interest rate is 4.4%
Over 30 years, you have to pay RM480,000 for your preperty' Interest and your total spend is RM880,000 ..... just imaging how you going to spend your life and etc.
If you are not buying a LIABILITY HOUSE, Car and put your money into an Investment Portforlio... Anual Return just 4% (Compounding Interest) your money will be RM1, 297 359.00
See the difference??
So RETHINK!!! What you learn in school is RIGHT or drive you to another RAT RACE Generation??
Friday, September 2, 2016
10 Tips for the Successful Long-Term Investor
10 Tips for the Successful Long-Term Investor
While it may be true that in the stock market there is no rule without an exception, there are some principles that are tough to dispute. Let's review 10 general principles to help investors get a better grasp of how to approach the market from a long-term view. Every point embodies some fundamental concept every investor should know.
1. Sell the Losers and Let the Winners Ride!
Time and time again, investors take profits by selling their appreciated investments, but they hold onto stocks that have declined in the hope of a rebound. If an investor doesn't know when it's time to let go of hopeless stocks, he or she can, in the worst-case scenario, see the stock sink to the point where it is almost worthless. Of course, the idea of holding onto high-quality investments while selling the poor ones is great in theory, but hard to put into practice. The following information might help:
Riding a Winner - Peter Lynch was famous for talking about "tenbaggers", or investments that increased tenfold in value. The theory is that much of his overall success was due to a small number of stocks in his portfolio that returned big. If you have a personal policy to sell after a stock has increased by a certain multiple - say three, for instance - you may never fully ride out a winner. No one in the history of investing with a "sell-after-I-have-tripled-my-money" mentality has ever had a tenbagger. Don't underestimate a stock that is performing well by sticking to some rigid personal rule - if you don't have a good understanding of the potential of your investments, your personal rules may end up being arbitrary and too limiting. (For more insight, see Pick Stocks Like Peter Lynch.)
Selling a Loser - There is no guarantee that a stock will bounce back after a protracted decline. While it's important not to underestimate good stocks, it's equally important to be realistic about investments that are performing badly. Recognizing your losers is hard because it's also an acknowledgment of your mistake. But it's important to be honest when you realize that a stock is not performing as well as you expected it to. Don't be afraid to swallow your pride and move on before your losses become even greater.
In both cases, the point is to judge companies on their merits according to your research. In each situation, you still have to decide whether a price justifies future potential. Just remember not to let your fears limit your returns or inflate your losses. (For related reading, check out To Sell Or Not To Sell.)
2. Don't Chase a "Hot Tip."
Whether the tip comes from your brother, your cousin, your neighbor or even your broker, you shouldn't accept it as law. When you make an investment, it's important you know the reasons for doing so; do your own research and analysis of any company before you even consider investing your hard-earned money. Relying on a tidbit of information from someone else is not only an attempt at taking the easy way out, it's also a type of gambling. Sure, with some luck, tips sometimes pan out. But they will never make you an informed investor, which is what you need to be to be successful in the long run. (Find what you should pay attention to - and what you should ignore in Listen To The Markets, Not Its Pundits.)
3. Don't Sweat the Small Stuff.
As a long-term investor, you shouldn't panic when your investments experience short-term movements. When tracking the activities of your investments, you should look at the big picture. Remember to be confident in the quality of your investments rather than nervous about the inevitable volatility of the short term. Also, don't overemphasize the few cents difference you might save from using a limit versus market order.
Granted, active traders will use these day-to-day and even minute-to-minute fluctuations as a way to make gains. But the gains of a long-term investor come from a completely different market movement - the one that occurs over many years - so keep your focus on developing your overall investment philosophy by educating yourself. (Learn the difference between passive investing and apathy in Ostrich Approach To Investing A Bird-Brained Idea.)
4. Don't Overemphasize the P/E Ratio.
Investors often place too much importance on the price-earnings ratio (P/E ratio). Because it is one key tool among many, using only this ratio to make buy or sell decisions is dangerous and ill-advised. The P/E ratio must be interpreted within a context, and it should be used in conjunction with other analytical processes. So, a low P/E ratio doesn't necessarily mean a security isundervalued, nor does a high P/E ratio necessarily mean a company is overvalued. (For further reading, see our tutorial Understanding the P/E Ratio.)
5. Resist the Lure of Penny Stocks.
A common misconception is that there is less to lose in buying a low-priced stock. But whether you buy a $5 stock that plunges to $0 or a $75 stock that does the same, either way you've lost 100% of your initial investment. A lousy $5 company has just as much downside risk as a lousy $75 company. In fact, a penny stock is probably riskier than a company with a higher share price , which would have more regulations placed on it. (For further reading, see The Lowdown on Penny Stocks.)
6. Pick a Strategy and Stick With It.
Different people use different methods to pick stocks and fulfill investing goals. There are many ways to be successful and no one strategy is inherently better than any other. However, once you find your style, stick with it. An investor who flounders between different stock-picking strategies will probably experience the worst, rather than the best, of each. Constantly switching strategies effectively makes you a market timer, and this is definitely territory most investors should avoid. Take Warren Buffett's actions during the dotcom boom of the late '90s as an example. Buffett's value-oriented strategy had worked for him for decades, and - despite criticism from the media - it prevented him from getting sucked into tech startups that had no earnings and eventually crashed. (Want to adopt the Oracle of Omaha's investing style? See Think Like Warren Buffett.)
7. Focus on the Future.
The tough part about investing is that we are trying to make informed decisions based on things that have yet to happen. It's important to keep in mind that even though we use past data as an indication of things to come, it's what happens in the future that matters most.
A quote from Peter Lynch's book "One Up on Wall Street" (1990) about his experience with Subaru demonstrates this: "If I'd bothered to ask myself, 'How can this stock go any higher?' I would have never bought Subaru after it already went up twentyfold. But I checked the fundamentals, realized that Subaru was still cheap, bought the stock, and made sevenfold after that." The point is to base a decision on future potential rather than on what has already happened in the past. (For more insight, see The Value Investor's Handbook.)
8. Adopt a Long-Term Perspective.
Large short-term profits can often entice those who are new to the market. But adopting a long-term horizon and dismissing the "get in, get out and make a killing" mentality is a must for any investor. This doesn't mean that it's impossible to make money by actively trading in the short term. But, as we already mentioned, investing and trading are very different ways of making gains from the market. Trading involves very different risks that buy-and-hold investors don't experience. As such, active trading requires certain specialized skills.
Neither investing style is necessarily better than the other - both have their pros and cons. But active trading can be wrong for someone without the appropriate time, financial resources, education and desire. (For further reading, see Defining Active Trading.)
9. Be Open-Minded.
Many great companies are household names, but many good investments are not household names. Thousands of smaller companies have the potential to turn into the large blue chips of tomorrow. In fact, historically, small-caps have had greater returns than large-caps; over the decades from 1926-2001, small-cap stocks in the U.S. returned an average of 12.27% while theStandard& Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500) returned 10.53%.
This is not to suggest that you should devote your entire portfolio to small-cap stocks. Rather, understand that there are many great companies beyond those in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and that by neglecting all these lesser-known companies, you could also be neglecting some of the biggest gains. (For more on investing in small caps, see Small Caps Boast Big Advantages.)
10. Be Concerned About Taxes, but Don't Worry.
Putting taxes above all else is a dangerous strategy, as it can often cause investors to make poor, misguided decisions. Yes, tax implications are important, but they are a secondary concern. The primary goals in investing are to grow and secure your money. You should always attempt to minimize the amount of tax you pay and maximize your after-tax return, but the situations are rare where you'll want to put tax considerations above all else when making an investment decision (see Basic Investment Objectives).
The Bottom Line
There are exceptions to every rule, but we hope that these solid tips for long-term investors and the common-sense principles we've discussed benefit you overall and provide some insight into how you should think about investing. If you are looking for more information about long term investing, Investopedia's Ask an Advisor tackles the topic by answering one of our user questions.
While it may be true that in the stock market there is no rule without an exception, there are some principles that are tough to dispute. Let's review 10 general principles to help investors get a better grasp of how to approach the market from a long-term view. Every point embodies some fundamental concept every investor should know.
1. Sell the Losers and Let the Winners Ride!
Time and time again, investors take profits by selling their appreciated investments, but they hold onto stocks that have declined in the hope of a rebound. If an investor doesn't know when it's time to let go of hopeless stocks, he or she can, in the worst-case scenario, see the stock sink to the point where it is almost worthless. Of course, the idea of holding onto high-quality investments while selling the poor ones is great in theory, but hard to put into practice. The following information might help:
Riding a Winner - Peter Lynch was famous for talking about "tenbaggers", or investments that increased tenfold in value. The theory is that much of his overall success was due to a small number of stocks in his portfolio that returned big. If you have a personal policy to sell after a stock has increased by a certain multiple - say three, for instance - you may never fully ride out a winner. No one in the history of investing with a "sell-after-I-have-tripled-my-money" mentality has ever had a tenbagger. Don't underestimate a stock that is performing well by sticking to some rigid personal rule - if you don't have a good understanding of the potential of your investments, your personal rules may end up being arbitrary and too limiting. (For more insight, see Pick Stocks Like Peter Lynch.)
Selling a Loser - There is no guarantee that a stock will bounce back after a protracted decline. While it's important not to underestimate good stocks, it's equally important to be realistic about investments that are performing badly. Recognizing your losers is hard because it's also an acknowledgment of your mistake. But it's important to be honest when you realize that a stock is not performing as well as you expected it to. Don't be afraid to swallow your pride and move on before your losses become even greater.
In both cases, the point is to judge companies on their merits according to your research. In each situation, you still have to decide whether a price justifies future potential. Just remember not to let your fears limit your returns or inflate your losses. (For related reading, check out To Sell Or Not To Sell.)
2. Don't Chase a "Hot Tip."
Whether the tip comes from your brother, your cousin, your neighbor or even your broker, you shouldn't accept it as law. When you make an investment, it's important you know the reasons for doing so; do your own research and analysis of any company before you even consider investing your hard-earned money. Relying on a tidbit of information from someone else is not only an attempt at taking the easy way out, it's also a type of gambling. Sure, with some luck, tips sometimes pan out. But they will never make you an informed investor, which is what you need to be to be successful in the long run. (Find what you should pay attention to - and what you should ignore in Listen To The Markets, Not Its Pundits.)
3. Don't Sweat the Small Stuff.
As a long-term investor, you shouldn't panic when your investments experience short-term movements. When tracking the activities of your investments, you should look at the big picture. Remember to be confident in the quality of your investments rather than nervous about the inevitable volatility of the short term. Also, don't overemphasize the few cents difference you might save from using a limit versus market order.
Granted, active traders will use these day-to-day and even minute-to-minute fluctuations as a way to make gains. But the gains of a long-term investor come from a completely different market movement - the one that occurs over many years - so keep your focus on developing your overall investment philosophy by educating yourself. (Learn the difference between passive investing and apathy in Ostrich Approach To Investing A Bird-Brained Idea.)
4. Don't Overemphasize the P/E Ratio.
Investors often place too much importance on the price-earnings ratio (P/E ratio). Because it is one key tool among many, using only this ratio to make buy or sell decisions is dangerous and ill-advised. The P/E ratio must be interpreted within a context, and it should be used in conjunction with other analytical processes. So, a low P/E ratio doesn't necessarily mean a security isundervalued, nor does a high P/E ratio necessarily mean a company is overvalued. (For further reading, see our tutorial Understanding the P/E Ratio.)
5. Resist the Lure of Penny Stocks.
A common misconception is that there is less to lose in buying a low-priced stock. But whether you buy a $5 stock that plunges to $0 or a $75 stock that does the same, either way you've lost 100% of your initial investment. A lousy $5 company has just as much downside risk as a lousy $75 company. In fact, a penny stock is probably riskier than a company with a higher share price , which would have more regulations placed on it. (For further reading, see The Lowdown on Penny Stocks.)
6. Pick a Strategy and Stick With It.
Different people use different methods to pick stocks and fulfill investing goals. There are many ways to be successful and no one strategy is inherently better than any other. However, once you find your style, stick with it. An investor who flounders between different stock-picking strategies will probably experience the worst, rather than the best, of each. Constantly switching strategies effectively makes you a market timer, and this is definitely territory most investors should avoid. Take Warren Buffett's actions during the dotcom boom of the late '90s as an example. Buffett's value-oriented strategy had worked for him for decades, and - despite criticism from the media - it prevented him from getting sucked into tech startups that had no earnings and eventually crashed. (Want to adopt the Oracle of Omaha's investing style? See Think Like Warren Buffett.)
7. Focus on the Future.
The tough part about investing is that we are trying to make informed decisions based on things that have yet to happen. It's important to keep in mind that even though we use past data as an indication of things to come, it's what happens in the future that matters most.
A quote from Peter Lynch's book "One Up on Wall Street" (1990) about his experience with Subaru demonstrates this: "If I'd bothered to ask myself, 'How can this stock go any higher?' I would have never bought Subaru after it already went up twentyfold. But I checked the fundamentals, realized that Subaru was still cheap, bought the stock, and made sevenfold after that." The point is to base a decision on future potential rather than on what has already happened in the past. (For more insight, see The Value Investor's Handbook.)
8. Adopt a Long-Term Perspective.
Large short-term profits can often entice those who are new to the market. But adopting a long-term horizon and dismissing the "get in, get out and make a killing" mentality is a must for any investor. This doesn't mean that it's impossible to make money by actively trading in the short term. But, as we already mentioned, investing and trading are very different ways of making gains from the market. Trading involves very different risks that buy-and-hold investors don't experience. As such, active trading requires certain specialized skills.
Neither investing style is necessarily better than the other - both have their pros and cons. But active trading can be wrong for someone without the appropriate time, financial resources, education and desire. (For further reading, see Defining Active Trading.)
9. Be Open-Minded.
Many great companies are household names, but many good investments are not household names. Thousands of smaller companies have the potential to turn into the large blue chips of tomorrow. In fact, historically, small-caps have had greater returns than large-caps; over the decades from 1926-2001, small-cap stocks in the U.S. returned an average of 12.27% while theStandard& Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500) returned 10.53%.
This is not to suggest that you should devote your entire portfolio to small-cap stocks. Rather, understand that there are many great companies beyond those in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and that by neglecting all these lesser-known companies, you could also be neglecting some of the biggest gains. (For more on investing in small caps, see Small Caps Boast Big Advantages.)
10. Be Concerned About Taxes, but Don't Worry.
Putting taxes above all else is a dangerous strategy, as it can often cause investors to make poor, misguided decisions. Yes, tax implications are important, but they are a secondary concern. The primary goals in investing are to grow and secure your money. You should always attempt to minimize the amount of tax you pay and maximize your after-tax return, but the situations are rare where you'll want to put tax considerations above all else when making an investment decision (see Basic Investment Objectives).
The Bottom Line
There are exceptions to every rule, but we hope that these solid tips for long-term investors and the common-sense principles we've discussed benefit you overall and provide some insight into how you should think about investing. If you are looking for more information about long term investing, Investopedia's Ask an Advisor tackles the topic by answering one of our user questions.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)